Fitch Ratings has raised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 to 7.5%, up from 7.4% projected in December, citing domestic demand as the primary driver, with consumer spending and investment expanding at 8.6% and 6.9% respectively. However, Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton warned that a scenario where oil prices rise to USD 100 per barrel and remain there would constitute a significant adverse global supply shock. Fitch’s baseline assumption is that Brent, which has surged since the US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, stays in the $90-100 range through March before easing to the mid-USD 60s in H2 2026 — implying an annual average of $70/barrel, up from $63 in the December outlook, said a report.
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